VANCOUVER ISLAND WINDTALK

After I found the valve to turn off the rain, the day cleared up. Great day on the lake, some up and down. Big loll mid afternoon, but picked up after a short pause In fact the wind got better, more consistent and stronger.
For Canada day, we expect strong conditions. Good temperature gradient between the coast and inland, plus a strong wind warning form the Marine Forecast for the Juan de Fuca Strait west entrance.
Put that all together and we end up with a forecast that calls for strong conditions.
Come and see us at the Elevation Kite and Wing Center and then go play with the wind…

We have the answer to the question, how important are the winds off the coast of Vancouver Island. Apparently they have no influence on our winds. Monday and Tuesday we had a strong west wind at the Juan de Fuca west entrance, 15 to 25 kts, and I assumed that those winds provided additional fuel for our winds. Yesterday, Wednesday the winds at the entrance were calm, only 5 to 15 kts. I was thinking, because the temperature gradient was good, 6C, but not exceptional, we would have a moderate day. Not so. Yesterday, Wednesday, despite the missing west wind, conditions on the lake were strong, and lasted late into the evening.
Issue resolved, right? We only look at the temperature difference, nothing else. Well, I don’t think it is that simple. We are talking about the weather. Nothing is ever that simple and straight forward. But I do think, as probably everyone who has been playing on the lake knows, the driver of the wind engine on Lake Nitinaht are the thermals.
A quick plug for our Demo day on July 13 and 14. Elevation Kite and Wing Center is planning a big event for that weekend, don’t miss it.

Loving the daily reports and musings.
A strong temperature gradient combined with presence/absence of coastal fog are what really makes it blow strong (or not so strong). There are ways to forecast fog too, but the easiest is to look in the morning at the Visible and Fog imagery available on BWD "Imagery" tab. So today for example, no real fog bank, so probably not nukin nitnat. But!..as you say it's weather and there's so many variables and idiosyncrasies that a perfect "bang on" forecast is very hard to nail down!

Saturday was great on Lake Nitinaht. The temperature difference between the coast and inland was larger than anticipated based on the forecast. A 9C difference calls for an epic day, and this is what we got. A lot of fun, a nice fresh breeze for all to have a great time.
For tomorrow Sunday, the forecast is calling again for a 9C difference. Based on this, we expect another strong day on the lake. The wind will start blowing after lunch and build to a fresh breeze and may be even close to a strong breeze.
Don’t forget about the Elevation Kite and Wing Center first 2024 demo day next weekend. It will be a lot of fun, you don’t want to miss it.

Weather at the lake has been amazing. So far this month we were able to kite every day in winds ranging form a fresh breeze to near gale conditions.
I hope you made arrangements for the coming weekend, July 20 and 21… It promises to be a great weekend with winds ranging for a fresh breeze to a strong breeze.
See you on the lake…

Today was the first day in July with a spooky wind that did not allow for a session in the evening. That does not mean we did not have enough wind for a session during the day, just not in the evening.
The weather looks better again for tomorrow, with a temperature spread of 8C and mostly clear skies.
Come and visit us, and let’s play with the wind.

After a sputtering start, we had a fresh breeze blowing until late into the evening. Clouds did start to show up in the sky in the late afternoon, indicating a change in the weather pattern.
Expecting showers and drizzle overnight from Tuesday to Wednesday until about 1pm on Wednesday. I guess we will have a lazy morning, but should be able to get for a session in the afternoon.

Rain and/or drizzle lingering around longer than forecasted prevented the wind pump to get going. There was an opportunity for a session, but it was short and the wind was sputtering.
For tomorrow Thursday we expect more sunshine, less clouds. The temperature difference between the coast and inland is the same as on Wednesday 5C, but the increased sunshine should get the wind pump going, a moderate, maybe a fresh breeze.
Hope to see you on the lake.

Thursday was way better than expected. The temperature difference was only 4.4C, still we experience a strong breeze or about 25kts of wind. For tomorrow Friday, the forecast calls for a 7C difference between the coast and inland. What are you waiting for? Come to the lake, expecting a strong breeze on Friday and Saturday… Sunday should be OK, but rain on Monday… Skip work on Friday, back on Monday…

OK… this is it! On Saturday the wind is building to reach crescendo. We expect a 11C temperature difference between the coast and inland. We expect a strong breeze, maybe even more.
However… this is it.
Rain on Sunday…

After two days of rain the sun is back. Today Wednesday we had a late start, about 2pm, buy 4pm we had a moderate breeze. We never got the wind we expected. The reason, the actual temperature difference between the coast and inland was “only” 6C, not the 8C that was forecasted.
For tomorrow Thursday we should have a stronger day, starting earlier. Our guess is, expect a moderate to strong breeze. The forecast for the next few days looks great…
See you on the lake.

Hey JC, some inconsistencies in your estimates lately are largely explained by higher level east to west pressure gradients which still play a significant role in surface level air movement. Lately there has been a lot of offshore high level flow (why you've seen smokey skies and sunsets but not smelled them). Outflow and heat lows are the two most common causes of lack of wind with otherwise ideal Temperature gradients which are only part of the pressure picture. Not sure what forecast medium you are looking at but taking a look at 3km HRRR pressure @ 2000-3000m might be good thing to add into your routine. Cheers.

How do things look this Wed-Fri? What about this coming w/e? Seems overcast but at least there is a 7 degC gradient. I've generally lucked out and been there on sunny summer days, which generally seems to just work as a predictor for me. Don't need a lot of wind for wing foiling. What was Monday like? Glanced at the webcam around 5 pm, looked like there were some wingers, not sure if they were foiling as it looked relatively calm.

The weather at Lake Nitinaht has been a challenge. It’s been wet, and the season, at least for us, is coming to a close. All the events we had planned had to be scratched, just no enough wind.
However…
This weekend, August 24 and 25 is still unsettled. But starting on Tuesday of next week we should see a stretch of nice weather leading into the long weekend. We are still planning the yearly. “Try and Buy” on the long weekend.
Hope to see you at the lake…

Good thing nobody was listening to my forecast for this Saturday. I expected a no wind day, but instead we got a great day on the lake. The 10 to 20 knots wind that was predicted by the marine forecast did push in and provided us with a nice day, despite the heavy overcast and lack of thermals.
Sunday, August 25 is expected to be a no wind day. No wind at the coast, overcast, and no temperature spread between the coast and inland.
Monday we will have more rain.
Tuesday, the good times are back with rainbows, unicorns and sunshine