FXUS66 KSEW 162223
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
325 PM PDT Sat Oct 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A front will move ashore later tonight and Sunday.
Monday and Tuesday will see a break between weather systems.
Additional fronts will arrive Wednesday and late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...Radar this afternoon still
shows areas of rain around the north WA coast. It is still breezy
ahead of the front, especially over the coastal and northern inland
waters. The front will weaken and break up as it moves ashore later
tonight and Sunday. Showers will end Sunday night. Monday and
Tuesday will see a break between weather systems. 19

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A weakening front will
arrive Wednesday--the trend in the models has been to stretch that
front out and it moves ashore from SFO to Alaska with a parent low
far away and nothing remarkable for Western WA. The following
shortwave is more interesting as a deep low develops offshore Wed
and Wed night--the GFS is deeper and farther south than the ECMWF
but both models fill the low offshore through Thursday night--so,
seas come up along the coast but the weather doesn`t look too
interesting otherwise. Beyond that, periods of rainy breezy weather
are a good bet as a strong westerly jet stream probably sets up
across the north Pacific for a period of active weather. 19

&&

.AVIATION...Southwesterly flow aloft through Sunday. Stalled cold
front offshore tonight moving inland Sunday.

Ceilings aoa 10000 feet Puget Sound eastward. West of Puget Sound
scattered to broken layer near 3500 feet with another layer around
7000 feet. Ceilings lowering along the coast around 10z and inland
15z-18z Sunday down to around 2000 feet.

KSEA...Ceilings aoa 10000 feet. Ceilings lowering back down to
near 5000 feet around 12z Sunday and to around 2000 feet 15z-18z
Sunday. Southerly wind 6 to 10 knots. Felton

&&

.MARINE...Stalled cold front tonight moving through the waters
Sunday. High pressure building over the waters behind the front later
Sunday with winds easing. Next system arriving Wednesday.

Small craft advisory winds continuing tonight in the nearshore
coastal waters with small craft advisory winds over the outer
coastal waters Sunday morning. Small craft advisory winds over the
northern portion of the inland waters into Sunday morning. Felton

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PDT Sunday for Admiralty Inlet-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 2 PM PDT Sunday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.

&&

$$

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