FXUS66 KSEW 232231
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
231 PM PST Sun Jan 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...No significant weather systems are likely to affect
Western Washington for at least the next several days. Low clouds
and fog will persist across much of the lowlands and across the
inland waters of Western Washington. The coast and mountains are
likely to see sunnier weather with mild temps through midweek. By
next weekend the upper ridge might break down and a return to a
more active weather pattern becomes more likely around the end of
the month.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...The extent of the fog
and low clouds changed little over the lowlands through the day.
It was still sunny on the coast and in the mountains this
afternoon, but an awfully gray day for much of the lowlands. An
air stagnation advisory is in effect. Monday is likely to be be a
similar day--there is a dry shortwave trough that will move down
the east side of the ridge from B.C. into Eastern Washington
Monday afternoon--but I`m not sure that will do anything to the
air mass over Western Washington. As we get into Tuesday and
Wednesday, the sky cover forecasts and temps recover a bit toward
less grey and cool--and there is a second dry upper trough that
moves down the east side of our ridge Tuesday night. It is a
pretty big question mark whether anything will be able to dislodge
the fog and low clouds and I would not count on it happening. 19

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...There is a good chance that
the upper ridge will begin to break down around the end of the
week. The first system is likely to weaken and move ashore around
Friday night--the GFS is dry the the ECMWF has some rain. Not
until Sunday or Sunday night does it look like the ridge will be
out of here--so we probably will not have to wait quite as long
as February for fresh snow in the mountains. The CPC 6 to 10 day
outlook leans toward cool and wet, we shall see. 19

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure will remain over the area. This will
create for light winds and fog throughout much of the area this
evening and again Monday. Widespread fog continues to linger over
the interior lowlands, especially in locations near the Sound.
Hopes of any afternoon clearing here have been dashed by this
point. However, locations along the coast, including HQM, are
reporting VFR conditions. Current model data suggests they will
stay that way for much of the TAF period, however, cannot rule out
the occasional dip down into MVFR or lower for brief periods
during the overnight hours. The potential for gradual clearing
late Monday morning/early Monday afternoon still exists, however
this will need to be monitored as it is far from guaranteed.

KSEA...IFR to LIFR conditions will continue through the overnight
hours and into Monday morning. Some potential for improving
conditions after 18Z Monday, but this will need to be monitored.
Light north to northeasterly winds will continue. 18

&&

.MARINE...High pressure that will remain over the area will keep
conditions over the area waters rather tranquil for the first half
of the week. Expect foggy conditions to form during the overnight
hours and will persist through at least the first part of each
morning. Models remain consistent with swells getting right to 10 ft
in the outer coastal waters Monday night into early Tuesday morning,
so have opted for a Small Craft Advisory there. Current solutions
for winds easing on the prospect of Fraser outflow winds impacting
the Northern Inland waters and Eastern Strait, so no headlines there
for now. Otherwise, winds expected to remain generally light
throughout the forecast period. 18


&&

.HYDROLOGY...No river flooding expected over the next 7 days.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Wednesday for Admiralty
Inlet Area-Bellevue and Vicinity-Bremerton and Vicinity-
Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish
and King Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-
Central Coast-East Puget Sound Lowlands-Eastern Strait of
Juan de Fuca-Everett and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-Lower
Chehalis Valley Area-North Coast-Olympics-San Juan County-
Seattle and Vicinity-Southwest Interior-Tacoma Area-Western
Skagit County-Western Strait of Juan De Fuca-Western
Whatcom County.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM PST Monday
for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.

&&

$$

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