Washington State Forecast Discussion

Western Washington


088
FXUS66 KSEW 262201
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
301 PM PDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A series of frontal systems will impact the region
into early next week. A trend toward somewhat drier conditions
and temperatures closer to normal is expected for the later half
of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...Scattered showers continue
across Western Washington this afternoon as an upper trough axis
shifts eastward across the area. Thanks to a few sun breaks, high
temperatures will nudge upward slightly over yesterday. After
a brief drying trend overnight, another front will spread
additional precipitation across the region Saturday into Saturday
night. Another system arrives on Sunday with a trailing upper
trough moving onshore on Monday to keep conditions damp and cool.
Temperatures aloft cool enough on Monday to support at least a
slight chance of thunderstorms. Snow levels will gradually come
down over the weekend...with some light snowfall expected in the
passes Sunday night into early Monday.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Another trough and
associated front sweeps across the area on Tuesday. The latest
suite of ensembles are beginning to hint at a modest warming and
drying trend for the later half of next week with some weak upper
ridging taking up residence offshore. There is still considerable
uncertainty regarding its strength. And, accordingly, the 50th
percentile NBM numbers retain chance PoPs and temperatures near
normal Wednesday through Friday. A fair number of the GFS
ensemble members suggest that Seattle could crack 70 degrees late
next week while Euro members remain, as they often do, on the more
conservative side. Either way, the distant portion of the
extended forecast looks more promising if you're on team spring.

27

&&

.AVIATION...Upper level trough moving east later tonight into
Saturday morning. Next front reaching the area late Saturday
afternoon/Saturday evening.

Ceilings around 5000 feet improving to aoa 7000 feet after 06z.
Ceilings lowering 17z-21z to MVFR with MVFR ceilings continuing
into Saturday night.

KSEA...Ceilings aoa 6000 feet lowering to MVFR 18z-21z Saturday.
MVFR ceilings continuing into Saturday night. Variable wind 4 to 6
knots becoming southerly 4 to 8 knots by 04z. Felton

&&

.MARINE...Weak surface low over the coastal waters will dissipate
this evening. Next front reaching the coastal waters Saturday
afternoon moving inland late Saturday afternoon/Saturday evening.
Small craft advisory winds over the coastal waters with and behind
the front Saturday into Sunday morning. POssible small craft
advisory winds behind the front in the Central and Eastern Strait
of Juan de Fuca late Saturday night. Weak surface high pressure
over the waters Sunday and Monday with another front arriving
Tuesday. Stronger high pressure building over the waters behind
the front Tuesday night into Wednesday.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...No river flooding is expected over the next seven
days.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60
Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To
Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

&&