Model1

 
 

These are wind predictions and are not intended to be used for any critical activity or decision making. By no means should this website be considered a reliable source of information for short lived or rapidly changing weather situations. Any reliance on such information is at your own risk, discretion and cost. Any errors, omissions and/or inconsistencies in the information shall not be the responsibility of bigwavedave.ca or windisgood.com.

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These are wind predictions and are not intended to be used for any critical activity or decision making. By no means should this website be considered a reliable source of information for short lived or rapidly changing weather situations. Any reliance on such information is at your own risk, discretion and cost. Any errors, omissions and/or inconsistencies in the information shall not be the responsibility of bigwavedave.ca or windisgood.com.


IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER

These are wind predictions and are not intended to be used for any critical activity or decision making. By no means should this website be considered a reliable source of information for short lived or rapidly changing weather situations. Any reliance on such information is at your own risk, discretion and cost. Any errors, omissions and/or inconsistencies in the information shall not be the responsibility of bigwavedave.ca or windisgood.com.

JuandeFuca

    Juan de Fuca Strait - east entrance
      
    STRONG WIND WARNING IN EFFECT

    Issued 9:30 PM PDT 22 September 2023 by EnvCanada

    Forecast for Tonight and Saturday.
    Wind west 15 to 20 knots diminishing to west 5 to 15 late overnight then becoming variable 5 to 15 early Saturday morning. Wind increasing to west 20 to 30 near noon Saturday then diminishing to west 5 to 15 early Saturday evening. Wind becoming light late Saturday evening. Showers Saturday afternoon and evening.

    Extended Forecast
    Sunday: Wind easterly 5 to 15 knots increasing to easterly 15 to 20 in the morning and to easterly 20 to 30 in the afternoon.
    Monday: Wind easterly 25 to 35 knots diminishing to easterly 10 to 20.
    Tuesday: Wind southeasterly 15 to 25 knots veering to southwesterly 15 to 25.
    Issued 04:00 PM PDT 22 September 2023

    Juan de Fuca Strait - central strait
      
    STRONG WIND WARNING IN EFFECT

    Issued 9:30 PM PDT 22 September 2023 by EnvCanada

    Forecast for Tonight and Saturday.
    Wind west 5 to 15 knots becoming light early Saturday morning then increasing to west 15 to 25 near noon Saturday. Wind diminishing to west 5 to 15 late Saturday afternoon then becoming light early Saturday evening. Showers Saturday.

    Extended Forecast
    Sunday: Wind easterly 5 to 15 knots increasing to easterly 15 to 20 in the morning and to easterly 20 to 30 in the afternoon.
    Monday: Wind easterly 25 to 35 knots diminishing to easterly 10 to 20.
    Tuesday: Wind southeasterly 15 to 25 knots veering to southwesterly 15 to 25.
    Issued 04:00 PM PDT 22 September 2023

    Juan de Fuca Strait - west entrance
      
    STRONG WIND WARNING IN EFFECT

    Issued 9:30 PM PDT 22 September 2023 by EnvCanada

    Forecast for Tonight and Saturday.
    Wind light increasing to easterly 5 to 15 knots late overnight and to easterly 15 to 25 Saturday morning. Wind becoming westerly 15 to 25 near noon Saturday then diminishing to westerly 5 to 15 Saturday afternoon. Wind becoming easterly 5 to 15 Saturday evening. Showers Saturday. Fog patches dissipating Saturday morning.

    Extended Forecast
    Sunday: Wind easterly 5 to 15 knots increasing to easterly 15 to 20 in the morning and to easterly 20 to 30 in the afternoon.
    Monday: Wind easterly 25 to 35 knots diminishing to easterly 10 to 20.
    Tuesday: Wind southeasterly 15 to 25 knots veering to southwesterly 15 to 25.
    Issued 04:00 PM PDT 22 September 2023


    Haro Strait
      
    STRONG WIND WARNING IN EFFECT

    Issued 9:30 PM PDT 22 September 2023 by EnvCanada

    Forecast for Tonight and Saturday.
    Wind southwest 5 to 15 knots backing to southeast 5 to 15 late overnight then increasing to southeast 15 to 20 early Saturday morning. Wind veering to southwest 15 to 25 early Saturday afternoon then diminishing to south 5 to 15 early Saturday evening. Showers Saturday afternoon and evening.

    Extended Forecast
    Sunday: Wind southeast 5 to 15 knots increasing to southeast 20 to 30 in the afternoon.
    Monday: Wind southeast 25 to 35 knots becoming southeast 20 to 30.
    Tuesday: Wind southeast 20 to 30 knots.
    Issued 04:00 PM PDT 22 September 2023


    Strait of Georgia - south of Nanaimo
      
    STRONG WIND WARNING IN EFFECT

    Issued 9:30 PM PDT 22 September 2023 by EnvCanada

    Forecast for Tonight and Saturday.
    Wind southeast 5 to 15 knots increasing to southeast 15 to 25 late Saturday morning then veering to southwest 15 to 25 late Saturday afternoon. Wind diminishing to southwest 5 to 15 early Saturday evening. Showers Saturday afternoon and evening.

    Extended Forecast
    Sunday: Wind southeast 10 to 20 knots becoming southeast 15 to 25 in the afternoon then increasing to southeast 25 to 35 late in the day.
    Monday: Wind southeast 25 to 35 knots becoming southeast 20 to 30 late in the day.
    Tuesday: Wind southeast 20 to 30 knots diminishing to southeast 10 to 20 late in the day.
    Issued 04:00 PM PDT 22 September 2023

    Strait of Georgia - north of Nanaimo
      
    STRONG WIND WARNING IN EFFECT

    Issued 9:30 PM PDT 22 September 2023 by EnvCanada

    Forecast for Tonight and Saturday.
    Wind southeast 5 to 15 knots increasing to southeast 15 to 20 late overnight and to southeast 20 to 25 early Saturday morning. Wind increasing to southeast 25 to 30 late Saturday morning then diminishing to southeast 10 to 20 early Saturday afternoon except southwest 25 near Qualicum Beach Saturday afternoon and evening. Showers Saturday.

    Extended Forecast
    Sunday: Wind southeast 10 to 20 knots becoming southeast 15 to 25 in the afternoon then increasing to southeast 25 to 35 late in the day.
    Monday: Wind southeast 25 to 35 knots becoming southeast 20 to 30 late in the day.
    Tuesday: Wind southeast 20 to 30 knots diminishing to southeast 10 to 20 late in the day.
    Issued 04:00 PM PDT 22 September 2023


    West Coast Vancouver Island South
      
    GALE WARNING IN EFFECT

    Issued 9:30 PM PDT 22 September 2023 by EnvCanada

    Forecast for Tonight and Saturday.
    Wind southeast 5 to 15 knots except light near the coast south of Tofino. Wind becoming southeast 15 to 25 near midnight then increasing to southeast 25 to 35 early Saturday morning. Wind becoming northwest 25 to 35 late Saturday morning except southeast 20 to 30 near the coast south of Tofino. Wind becoming northwest 15 to 25 early Saturday afternoon then backing to southwest 10 to 20 late Saturday afternoon. Periods of rain overnight and Saturday. Fog patches dissipating Saturday morning.

    Waves for Today Tonight and Saturday.
    Seas 1 metre building to 1 to 2 early Saturday morning and to 2 to 3 late Saturday morning. Seas subsiding to 1 to 2 Saturday evening.

    Extended Forecast
    Sunday: Wind southeast 15 to 25 knots increasing to southeast 25 to 35 in the morning and to southeast 40 to 50 late in the day.
    Monday: Wind southeast 40 to 50 knots becoming southeast 35 to 45.
    Tuesday: Wind southeast 35 to 45 knots diminishing to southwest 15 to 25 late in the day.
    Issued 04:00 PM PDT 22 September 2023





Washington State Forecast Discussion

Western Washington


003
FXUS66 KSEW 230357
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
857 PM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level troughing building over the NE Pacific
will kickstart an extended period of wet weather. Rain chances
return on Saturday as a weak front enters followed by additional
disturbances into the upcoming week. Fall-like temperatures are
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...Forecast remains largely
on track tonight. A weak system will move into the region,
bringing light rain to western Washington starting early Saturday.
Clouds ahead of the system have already started to push inland
along portions of the coast tonight. The remainder of the previous
discussion follows below, with updates made to the aviation and
marine sections. 14

For tonight, upper-level troughing will begin to progress into
the region. Deterministic guidance is showing a subtle shortwave
sweeping across the area late overnight. Mostly dry conditions are
expected tonight but a weak front looks to draw near the coast
into the early morning hours on Saturday with PoPs increasing.
Overnight lows are forecasted to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

As alluded to, a weak front is on tap to enter on Saturday. Light
widespread rain is in the forecast along with much cooler
temperatures, right on cue for the first day of fall. Widespread
60s are expected, anywhere from 8-12 degrees cooler than the
previous day. Rain will break into showers Saturday evening before
conditions gradually dry out briefly. Overnight lows are again to
be in the 40s and 50s.

After somewhat of a reprieve expected late Saturday night into
early Sunday, more rain is inbound. A deep low center over the NE
Pacific will scoop up copious amounts of moisture under strong
southwesterly flow. Here, an atmospheric river is on track to
make landfall along the WA/OR coast by Sunday evening, spreading
further inland by Monday morning. Ensemble and deterministic
guidance shows anomalously high PWAT values >1.00" during this
time. Widespread rainfall is forecasted to begin and continue
well into Monday. Current 24-hr rainfall forecast for Monday
includes 1-3" for the coast and Olympics. 0.5-1.0" throughout the
interior lowlands with values in the lower end influenced by
potential rain shadowing. 1-2" is in the forecast for the
Cascades. Note, confidence in exact totals is still on the lower
end at this time as the forecast could change in subsequent
updates. However, confidence still remains high on this being the
first prolonged moderate to heavy rainfall event in a while.
Breezy conditions are also in the forecast, particularly for the
coast with gusts upwards of 35-45 mph beginning Sunday night
through Monday.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Rain chances will remain in
the forecast through much of the upcoming week. NBM v4.1 has
anywhere between 85-95% chance of the coast seeing rainfall >1.0"
for a 24-hr period ending 5 AM Wednesday morning. 50-70% for much
of the Cascades and 25-45% through the lowlands. Troughing will
begin to push inland by Wednesday. However, ensemble guidance
remains in disagreement on the upper-level pattern going into
Thursday/Friday. Nevertheless showery and cool conditions are
favorable to remain.

McMillian

&&

.AVIATION...Light westerly flow aloft continues with a shift to
southerly flow expected overnight. This will maintain generally
VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for the interior this
evening. Increasing mid cloud deck will move over the region
tonight by 09z ahead of an approaching front. This will bring some
lower MVFR to IFR ceilings to the coast early evening. Light rain
will begin to spread across the region by 14z at the coast and far
north, and more solidly across the Puget Sound terminals later in
the morning, with additional rain through the day.

KSEA...VFR evening with clear skies and light southwesterly
winds. Increasing mid-level clouds with southerly winds increasing
to 10 kt by 16z. MVFR ceilings increasingly likely from 18z
onward through the period with light rain at times. Cullen

&&

.MARINE...A very strong low pressure system will rapidly intensify
and move into the area Sunday into Monday. NBM ensemble guidance
has continue to trend stronger with winds, with a 80-95% chance of
gale force sustained winds and a 55-75% chance of storm force
gusts across the outer coastal waters for Sunday night into early
Monday morning. Given this trend, have issued a Storm Watch for
the outer coastal waters for the aforementioned period, and a Gale
Watch for the inner coastal waters. Additionally, gales likely develop
in the Strait of Juan de Fuca as the strong pressure gradient
develops across the strait. Gales are likely to continue across
the coastal waters into Monday. Winds should ease up beginning
Tuesday and remain below thresholds through next week.

Seas will begin to build tomorrow to 5 to 7 ft Sunday with the first
frontal system, then building Sunday night into Monday up to 15-18
ft, first for the outer waters Monday then reaching the coastline
Tuesday. Steep waves will also develop across Grays Harbor bar
with a small craft advisory also issued there. LH/12

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the
start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated as needed.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon for
Grays Harbor Bar.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM PDT Monday for
West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
Out 10 Nm.

Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.

Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.

&&



Victoria

   11:57 AM

Victoria from EC 4:00 PM Friday Sep 22, 2023


Tonight
Clear. Becoming partly cloudy this evening. Hazy early this evening. Low 10.
Saturday
Mainly cloudy. 60 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Wind becoming west 30 km/h in the afternoon. High 17. UV index 3 or moderate.
Night
Partly cloudy. Wind west 30 km/h becoming light in the evening. Low 9.
Sunday
Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 16.
Night
Periods of rain. Windy. Low 13.
Monday
Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Windy. High 17.
Night
Cloudy with 70 percent chance of showers. Windy. Low 11.
Tuesday
Showers. High 15.
Night
Showers. Low 10.
Wednesday
Showers. High 15.
Night
Showers. Low 9.
Thursday
Cloudy with 40 percent chance of showers. High 15.

Current Conditions:
Mostly Cloudy, 13.3°C

Observed at: Victoria Int'l Airport 9:00 PM PDT Friday 22 September 2023
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Temperature: 13.3°C
Pressure / Tendency: 101.2 kPa falling
Visibility: 32 km
Humidity: 85 %
Dewpoint: 10.8°C
Wind: SSE 6 km/h
Air Quality Health Index: 4

   11:57 AM

Nanaimo from EC 4:00 PM Friday Sep 22, 2023


Tonight
Clear early this evening then partly cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers before morning. Low 10.
Saturday
Mainly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers early in the morning. Wind becoming southeast 30 km/h in the afternoon. High 18. UV index 3 or moderate.
Night
Partly cloudy. 30 percent chance of showers in the evening. Low 7.
Sunday
Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 14.
Night
Rain. Windy. Low 12.
Monday
Rain. Windy. High 16.
Night
Rain. Windy. Low 12.
Tuesday
Rain. High 16.
Night
Rain. Low 10.
Wednesday
Rain. High 15.
Night
Periods of rain. Low 9.
Thursday
Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 14.

Current Conditions:
Mostly Cloudy, 14.8°C

Observed at: Nanaimo Airport 9:00 PM PDT Friday 22 September 2023
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Temperature: 14.8°C
Pressure / Tendency: 101.2 kPa falling
Visibility: 32 km
Humidity: 69 %
Dewpoint: 9.2°C
Wind: NW 3 km/h
Air Quality Health Index: 3

   11:57 AM

Port Alberni from EC 4:00 PM Friday Sep 22, 2023


Tonight
Clear. Becoming partly cloudy late this evening. Low 6.
Saturday
Becoming cloudy in the morning then rain changing to 30 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. High 16. UV index 1 or low.
Night
Mainly cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Low 7.
Sunday
Cloudy. High 15.
Night
Rain. Low 12.
Monday
Rain. High 16.
Night
Rain. Low 11.
Tuesday
Rain. High 15.
Night
Rain. Low 10.
Wednesday
Rain. High 15.
Night
Periods of rain. Low 8.
Thursday
Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 14.

Current Conditions:
15.2°C

Observed at: Port Alberni 9:00 PM PDT Friday 22 September 2023
Temperature: 15.2°C
Pressure / Tendency: 101.3 kPa rising
Humidity: 60 %
Dewpoint: 7.6°C
Wind: ESE 6 km/h
Air Quality Health Index: n/a

   11:57 AM

Tofino from EC 4:00 PM Friday Sep 22, 2023


Tonight
Clear. Becoming partly cloudy this evening. Fog patches near the coast this evening. Fog patches developing near midnight. Low 9.
Saturday
Cloudy. Periods of rain beginning early in the morning and ending in the afternoon then 60 percent chance of showers late in the afternoon. Fog patches dissipating in the morning. Wind southeast 20 km/h gusting to 40 becoming northwest 30 gusting to 50 near noon. High 15. UV index 1 or low.
Night
Showers. Low 9.
Sunday
Showers. Windy. High 15.
Night
Rain. Windy. Low 13.
Monday
Rain. Very windy. High 15.
Night
Rain. Very windy. Low 12.
Tuesday
Rain. Windy. High 14.
Night
Rain. Low 11.
Wednesday
Rain. High 14.
Night
Showers. Low 8.
Thursday
Periods of rain. High 14.

Current Conditions:
9.1°C

Observed at: Tofino Airport 9:00 PM PDT Friday 22 September 2023
Temperature: 9.1°C
Pressure: 101.2 kPa
Humidity: 99 %
Dewpoint: 8.9°C
Wind: N 2 km/h
Air Quality Health Index: n/a

   11:57 AM

Comox from EC 4:00 PM Friday Sep 22, 2023


Tonight
A few clouds. Low 7.
Saturday
Becoming cloudy in the morning with a few showers. Wind becoming southeast 30 km/h gusting to 50 in the morning. High 18. UV index 2 or low.
Night
Mainly cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. Wind southeast 20 km/h becoming light near midnight. Low 8.
Sunday
Cloudy with 30 percent chance of showers. High 14.
Night
Rain. Windy. Low 12.
Monday
Rain. Windy. High 16.
Night
Rain. Windy. Low 12.
Tuesday
Rain. High 16.
Night
Rain. Low 10.
Wednesday
Rain. High 15.
Night
Periods of rain. Low 9.
Thursday
Cloudy with 60 percent chance of showers. High 14.

Current Conditions:
Mostly Cloudy, 15.8°C

Observed at: Comox Airport 9:00 PM PDT Friday 22 September 2023
Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Temperature: 15.8°C
Pressure / Tendency: 101.1 kPa falling
Visibility: 32 km
Humidity: 64 %
Dewpoint: 9.1°C
Wind: S 5 km/h
Air Quality Health Index: 3


NeahBay








Victoria







Model Info

  • Wind speed is shown in knots.
  • Forecast tables Model 1 and 2: click on the WIND SPEED to show a popup of the detailed model plot.
  • Model-1 (UW): University of Washington WRF-GFS 4km model updated 2x/day at ~1010am/1010pm.
  • Model-2 (EC): 2.5km (1-48hrs), 10km (49-84hrs) and 15km (93-210hrs) HRDPS Continental Model from Environment Canada updated 4x/day ~5am/11am/5pm/11pm.



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