El Nino / La nina / Neutral

[JL]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html The end is in sight ... June sees the end of La Nina

[UnusuallyLargeRobin]

Yes, however the depressing statement for March-May - "An increased chance of below-average temperatures is predicted for much of the West Coast"

[nanmoo]

Just like last year.. after the warm feb and mar, April and May were Brrrrrr.....

[JL]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ndex.shtml La Nina neutral by June ... Here is a graphic showing the previous winter conditions: http://www.bigwavedave.ca/gallery/displ ... &pid=13163

[JL]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... 1_temp.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html Predicted cooler than avg. May - July

[JL]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ndex.shtml

[JL]

"A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions occurred during May 2011 as indicated by generally small sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean east of the Date Line (Fig. T18). The May Niño index values (Table T2) were slightly below-average in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Niño-4 index of –0.5°C and Niño 3.4 index of –0.5°C), and above-average SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Niño-1+2 index of +0.8°C). The subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean) remained elevated, but relatively constant during the month, reflecting a large area of above-average temperatures at depth (Fig. T17). Consistent with other transitions to ENSO-neutral conditions, the atmospheric circulation anomalies continued to show some features consistent with La Niña, albeit at weaker strength. Convection was enhanced over eastern Indonesia and suppressed over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. T25). Also, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds weakened but persisted over the central Pacific (Figs. T20, T21). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions, but with lingering La Niña-like atmospheric impacts, particularly in the global Tropics.

Current observed trends, along with forecasts from a majority of the ENSO models, indicate ENSO-neutral will continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011 (three-month average in the Nino-3.4 index between –0.5°C and +0.5°C; Figs. F1-F13). Thereafter, most models and all multi-model forecasts predict ENSO-neutral to continue through the remainder of 2011. However, the status of ENSO beyond the Northern Hemisphere summer remains more uncertain due to lower model forecast skill at longer lead times, particularly during this time of year.

Weekly updates of oceanic and atmospheric conditions are available on the Climate Prediction Center homepage (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions)." http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/

[JL]

"Forecasts from a majority of the ENSO models, indicate ENSO-neutral will continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 (three-month average in the Nino-3.4 index between –0.5°C and +0.5°C; Figs. F1-F13). However, over the last couple of weeks, forecasts created by the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) have begun to indicate the re-emergence of La Niña during Northern Hemisphere fall 2011. Combined with the recent weakening of the positive subsurface ocean anomalies and the lingering La Niña state of the atmosphere, the possibility of a return to La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 has increased over the past month. However, ENSO-neutral remains most likely into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with most models and all multi-model forecasts predicting ENSO-neutral to continue through early 2012."

[JL]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf Enzo Neutral through fall !!!

[winddoctor]

The question is: does this mean more or less wind this Fall??

[JL]

Big S.E. Nov 1

[cguygo]

the next question... should i be looking to invest in a smaller kite? How strong of winds should i be expecting during the winter months?

[nanmoo]

Depends, the clearing westerlies in the fall and winter here can push well past 40 knots. At least three times last fall I was left standing on the beach with a 4.2m simply being too big. A good CB SE storm seems to be in the 25-30 knot range.

[JL]

Small kite (5-7m) , small board , short lines & lots of neoprene . I'm a fan of pogies http://www.mec.ca/AST/ShopMEC/MensCloth ... unisex.jsp

[more force 4]

and don't forget that the winter storms seem to pack more punch per knot of windspeed than the same speed summer winds. The concensus is that it is because the air is that much denser (I think it works the same as an aircraft will be able to lift say 1000 kg payload at a speed of 85 knots at 5 degrees C; same aircraft, travelling same speed and it will only lift 750 kg at 35 degrees; cause of many crashes-on-takeoff with pilots messing up calculations in pre-flight). So where an 8 m kite may comfortably handle 30 knots in summer, in winter you'd be way OP on the same gear.

I believe some of the Ocean Rodeo designer guys were out on 3 m or smaller kites in a few storms the last couple of winters?

I'm looking forward to using my 'new' 3.7 m sail this winter!