El Nino / La nina / Neutral

Tsawwassen · Post by **Tsawwassen** » Fri Mar 11, 2016 7:17 pm

I read it, I like it, keep it up please.

uddereef · Post by **uddereef** » Sat Mar 12, 2016 11:58 am

agree with you Mike,!!!its great when people are generous with their knowledge.!!!!

JL · Post by JL » Sat Mar 12, 2016 12:28 pm

Or in my case LACK of knowledge

But thanks

thankgodiatepastafobreaky · Sat Mar 12, 2016 8:25 pm

I always read this post too. Keep it up JL! It's fun to use this info to make up stories to try to explain why we get wind and why we are getting puked on so much lately.

Sandy Beach · Post by **Sandy Beach** » Sun Mar 13, 2016 11:24 am

Thank-you, JL for helping to make this BWD wind/weather site such a comprehensive resource.

Many observers value the info links and appreciate the time/energy you offer to the wind community!

KUS · Post by **KUS** » Sun Mar 13, 2016 9:23 pm

Sandy Beach wrote:Thank-you, JL for helping to make this BWD wind/weather site such a comprehensive resource.

Many observers value the info links and appreciate the time/energy you offer to the wind community!

I value JL's opinion, I don't think we need to pay for it but is also an option.....

it is interesting how people's posts after a simple request or suggestion can change the flavor of the intent....I just don't like the links postings without a summary as I have tried to read that mumboweatherjumbo and don't have the brains to follow or understand it...with a marine biology degree no less, so much for that....so if someone, JL or others, know what that means to us, then pls translate.

thanks for all you do JL

more force 4 · Post by **more force 4** » Mon Mar 14, 2016 7:50 pm

Yes over the years I've left a few plaintive comments. Several times I've read right through the links and learned lots about the oscillation but came away no wiser about what it might mean for local conditions. I really appreciate it when Jl or someone summarizes the local implications

JL · Post by JL » Tue Mar 15, 2016 8:30 am

Using my impecable hind sight : A big El Nino = Great La Ventana winter

JL · Post by JL » Wed Mar 16, 2016 11:14 am

This just in : http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2016_01_01_archive.html

JL · Post by JL » Thu Apr 14, 2016 7:44 am

Neutral

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

JL · Post by JL » Thu May 12, 2016 7:44 am

12 May 2016
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch

Synopsis: La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Nina during the fall and winter 2016-17.

During the past month, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with near-to-below average SSTs recently emerging in the eastern Pacific . The latest Niño region indices also reflect this decline, with the steepest decreases occurring in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions . The surface cooling was largely driven by the expansion of below-average subsurface temperatures, which extended to the surface in the eastern Pacific . While oceanic anomalies are clearly trending toward ENSO-neutral, many atmospheric anomalies were still consistent with El Niño, such as the negative equatorial and traditional Southern Oscillation indices. Upper-level easterly winds persisted over the central and eastern Pacific, while low-level winds were near average. Enhanced convection continued over the central tropical Pacific and was suppressed north of Indonesia . Collectively, these anomalies reflect a weakening El Niño and a trend toward ENSO-neutral conditons.

Most models predict the end of El Niño and a brief period of ENSO-neutral by early Northern Hemisphere summer . The model consensus then calls for increasingly negative SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region as the summer and fall progress. However, there is clear uncertainty over the timing and intensity of a potential La Niña (3-month Niño-3.4 SST less than or equal to -0.5°C). The forecaster consensus favors La Niña onset during the summer, mainly weighting the dynamical models (such as NCEP CFSv2) and observed trends toward cooler-than-average conditions. Overall, La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Nina during the fall and winter 2016-17.