Oregon Wavesailing Trips 2012

C36 · Post by **C36** » Tue Jun 19, 2012 5:18 pm

TheLaw wrote:Morewind and I were just talking about the 9-day pressure model forecast and how it doesn't look that good for either coast or the gorge for a week or so.

It sounds like that 9-day pressure model is a very good indicator. Morewind's words were that you could see a week out that this past week was going to be really windy on the coast based on the 9-day model.

Can you and Fish delay a little?

TheLaw/Morewind: Could you post a link to the "9-day pressure model forecast". Thank you.

I take it is something different that these three.

wind alert
Alton's NOAA graph
storm surf (click on wind)

shaggy · Post by **shaggy** » Tue Jun 19, 2012 6:26 pm

I'm on hold till the forecast improves, hopefully next week sometime.

KUS · Post by **KUS** » Tue Jun 19, 2012 6:33 pm

lite south wind @Cape w/ S swell?? I may have to learn to SUP afterall. The Beachcomber has great rentals & I plan to do some X training and resting bones/muscles. Hopefully the system will recover quicker than they think and hold on til Friday too. We shall see. I may do a bolt to the Gorge for Fri-Mon if it looks ok, do some shopping, mtn biking or skiing

TheLaw · Post by **TheLaw** » Tue Jun 19, 2012 7:31 pm

Hey C36...go to this site called bigwavedave.ca. Go to the top of the page where it says forecasts. Hover over it. Select pressure model.

There you have it!

Keen · Post by **Keen** » Tue Jun 19, 2012 7:53 pm

TheLaw wrote:Hey C36...go to this site called bigwavedave.ca. Go to the top of the page where it says forecasts. Hover over it. Select pressure model.

There you have it!

and if you like a more eye friendly format
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php ... n=us&t=ini

downwind dave · Post by **downwind dave** » Tue Jun 19, 2012 11:04 pm

looks like we might leave a few days later. i can stay till the 7th myself but is anyone down there driving back up on the 2nd that could give Fish a lift home?

morewind · Post by **morewind** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 8:01 am

hope may not be lost ... there is this place called the Juan de Fuca that is promising some wind on the weekend. Strange name, this place, likely a bit of a drive

Saturday..Wind west 15 to 25 knots increasing to 25 to 35 late in the
day.

downwind dave · Post by **downwind dave** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 9:40 am

dagnabbit i was going to surprise you dudes with my new board down at Pistol, but now i might have to take off the bubble wrap early.

nanmoo · Post by **nanmoo** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 10:03 am

Sail it with the bubble wrap.

C36 · Post by **C36** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 8:09 pm

The Law/Keen: Thanks for pointing me in the right direction (kinda like looking for your sunglasses when they are on the top of you head

).

Now all I need is a tutorial to figure it out.

Any pointers on what is a 'good' and 'bad' forecasts look like on this model (colours to watch for or positions of differential pressure) for south Orgeon.

Keen wrote:
TheLaw wrote:Hey C36...go to this site called bigwavedave.ca. Go to the top of the page where it says forecasts. Hover over it. Select pressure model.

There you have it!
and if you like a more eye friendly format
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php ... n=us&t=ini

Tsawwassen · Post by **Tsawwassen** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 8:40 pm

Hey Kus,

I've been watching your session log and things still look crazy down there.
I was going through withdrawals so I had to take in a session at Squamish today. Nice 20 knots, flat water with some chop to take off the edge.
Thanks for all your help down there at the Cape. I'm looking forward to sailing with you at CB this fall! Take care sailing with those monsters!!

morewind · Post by **morewind** » Wed Jun 20, 2012 8:52 pm

Any pointers on what is a 'good' and 'bad' forecasts look like on this model

Right now it's hard to show a good forecast because every day of the 9 day pressure model is bad for the S Oregon coast. I'll try to describe a good forecast in words, then add a graphic when a decent forecast shows up. For the south OR coast you want N wind, so you need low pressure in N California, combined with high pressure to the north-west, out in the Pacific -- this creates the N->S pressure gradient, which makes the N wind on the S OR coast (sometimes way too much as in Kus's latest adventure

). Now to the map -- what you look for are the isobar lines. You want to see 2-3 isobar lines at roughly the Oregon-California border, and oriented parallel to this border. Parallel is key. Closer together = stronger wind. Tight lines can indicate a blowout ==> go north to Bandon or Florence where the wind may be sailable.

Right now the isobars run parallel to the coast, hence no wind on the coast, but possibly good for the gorge.

Hopefully that makes some sense. I've watched this pressure model for years, and it's a remarkably good predictor of OR wind a week out. [/quote]

The following pressure model is guaranteed to deliver ZERO wind for the S Oregon coast

Unfortunately, that lines up with Wed of next week.

downwind dave · Post by **downwind dave** » Thu Jun 21, 2012 9:57 am

latest wunderground and magicseaweed show N winds kicking in from tuesday the 26th onwards. o% precip and sun after the 29th. swells 2-4'

nanmoo · Post by **nanmoo** » Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:03 am

Yup, Windalert (iWindsurf) corroborates that.

http://www.iwindsurf.com/windandwhere.i ... ast+Graphs

So - now that we know - when is everyone going?[/url]

more force 4 · Post by **more force 4** » Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:08 am

Kus, you mention a couple of times in logs that you or others played it safe and 'jibed on the outside'. Ummmm - what other realistic options are there? (I remember dunking in to do a controlled flip and waterstart on the other tack, but I doubt The Boss would do that under 65 knots or so.....). Or are you just talking about jibing without bothering to immediately catch a wave, or chicken jibing before the outer bar?

Oregon Wavesailing Trips 2012

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