El Nino / La nina / Neutral

General discussions about the weather, incoming storms and swell, complaining, why is it always so windy at night etc.

Post Reply
User avatar
JL
Posts: 2610
Joined: Thu May 22, 2003 8:57 am
Location: Saanichton / Shirley (French Beach)
Been thanked: 2 times
Contact:
Contact JL

Post by JL »

Synopsis: La Niña is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance during January-March), with a potential transition to ENSO-neutral during the spring 2021 (55% chance during April-June). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
Thermals are good.
Back to Top
User avatar
more force 4
Sponsor
Sponsor
Posts: 1459
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2003 8:57 am
Location: Victoria, BC
Has thanked: 23 times
Been thanked: 8 times
Contact:
Contact more force 4

Post by more force 4 »

So JL where is all the cold weather we are supposed to be getting??
Back to Top
User avatar
JL
Posts: 2610
Joined: Thu May 22, 2003 8:57 am
Location: Saanichton / Shirley (French Beach)
Been thanked: 2 times
Contact:
Contact JL

Post by JL »

Lets just call la Nina "the windy Bitch" and forget about the models. 8) That's not to say we won't experience a few Arctic Outflow events :!:
Attachments
La Nina.JPG
La Nina.JPG (30.86 KiB) Viewed 5193 times
Thermals are good.
Back to Top
User avatar
AJSpencer
Website Donor
Website Donor
Posts: 211
Joined: Sat Jun 22, 2019 7:18 am
Has thanked: 66 times
Been thanked: 9 times

Post by AJSpencer »

Like next weekend! :?
Back to Top
User avatar
JL
Posts: 2610
Joined: Thu May 22, 2003 8:57 am
Location: Saanichton / Shirley (French Beach)
Been thanked: 2 times
Contact:
Contact JL

Post by JL »

As we experience an Arctic outflow here is the Spring advisory of ENSO neutral: :roll: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
Thermals are good.
Back to Top
User avatar
JL
Posts: 2610
Joined: Thu May 22, 2003 8:57 am
Location: Saanichton / Shirley (French Beach)
Been thanked: 2 times
Contact:
Contact JL

Post by JL »

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml :P Please note the 2 models below:
Attachments
off01_temp.gif
off01_temp.gif (35.4 KiB) Viewed 4913 times
off01_prcp.gif
off01_prcp.gif (34.45 KiB) Viewed 4912 times
Thermals are good.
Back to Top
User avatar
AJSpencer
Website Donor
Website Donor
Posts: 211
Joined: Sat Jun 22, 2019 7:18 am
Has thanked: 66 times
Been thanked: 9 times

Post by AJSpencer »

Well, hopefully a warm and wet Spring with limited forest fire activity this Summer. Doesn't sound good for the Westerlies though!
In Summer, are El Nino years generally big evening Westerlies/heat, and La Nina cooler/wetter with mild SEs and alternating Ws? Or is it not that simple to generalize like that?
Back to Top
User avatar
JL
Posts: 2610
Joined: Thu May 22, 2003 8:57 am
Location: Saanichton / Shirley (French Beach)
Been thanked: 2 times
Contact:
Contact JL

Post by JL »

8) Let's hope for lots of local high pressure and afternoon thermals. :P Friday afternoon looks good.
Thermals are good.
Back to Top
User avatar
JL
Posts: 2610
Joined: Thu May 22, 2003 8:57 am
Location: Saanichton / Shirley (French Beach)
Been thanked: 2 times
Contact:
Contact JL

Post by JL »

A transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral is likely in the next month or so, with an 80% chance of ENSO-neutral during May-July 2021. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
Thermals are good.
Back to Top
User avatar
Bobson
Website Donor
Website Donor
Posts: 456
Joined: Wed May 14, 2003 8:57 am
Location: On The Water
Has thanked: 25 times
Been thanked: 17 times

Weather

Post by Bobson »

Ok JL, can you give me a dumbed-down version of what the forecast is saying. My friend had a dog named Enzo.
Good Times,
BOBSON!!
Back to Top
User avatar
JL
Posts: 2610
Joined: Thu May 22, 2003 8:57 am
Location: Saanichton / Shirley (French Beach)
Been thanked: 2 times
Contact:
Contact JL

Post by JL »

Bobson I suspect your friend Is/was a Ferrari fan. Cliff Mass my oft. quoted Seattle meteorologist prof. says that spring is subject to a "spring forecast barrier" so stay tuned. 8)
Thermals are good.
Back to Top
User avatar
JL
Posts: 2610
Joined: Thu May 22, 2003 8:57 am
Location: Saanichton / Shirley (French Beach)
Been thanked: 2 times
Contact:
Contact JL

Post by JL »

La Niña has ended, with ENSO-neutral likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (67% chance in June-August 2021). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
Thermals are good.
Back to Top
User avatar
JL
Posts: 2610
Joined: Thu May 22, 2003 8:57 am
Location: Saanichton / Shirley (French Beach)
Been thanked: 2 times
Contact:
Contact JL

Post by JL »

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
Thermals are good.
Back to Top
User avatar
JL
Posts: 2610
Joined: Thu May 22, 2003 8:57 am
Location: Saanichton / Shirley (French Beach)
Been thanked: 2 times
Contact:
Contact JL

Re: El Nino / La nina / Neutral

Post by JL »

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml " ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January). "
Thermals are good.
Back to Top
User avatar
JL
Posts: 2610
Joined: Thu May 22, 2003 8:57 am
Location: Saanichton / Shirley (French Beach)
Been thanked: 2 times
Contact:
Contact JL

Re: El Nino / La nina / Neutral

Post by JL »

"So let me get to the punch line. During La Nina years, the Northwest tends to be cooler and wetter than normal. Typically more snowpack in the mountains. And increased chances of lowland snow. " (Cliff Mass) https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/08/ ... yHNu6CcwX4
Thermals are good.
Back to Top
Post Reply

Return to “Weather Talk”