El Nino / La nina / Neutral
Been trying to understand what it means for wind on van island when we are under La Nina, El Nino or in the normal. Could not find anything regarding wind (on some report they say La nina should enhanced trade wind).
Anyway I look at the archive from 2005, checked the group stats for kiting windsurfing day and colored the months; Blue if it was under La Nina, Red if it was El Nino and Black if it was neutral.
(look at the picture attach).
I didnt really analyse it yet but with only a quick look it seems like El Nino is what we want during summer / fall but not Dec, Jan Feb.
Also the 3 biggest wind log year 2006-2009-2012 had El Nino in them.
As soon as I see a pattern for "Neutral" or "La Nina" good or bad for the month it contradict itself with another year same month.
Anyway here it is, maybe we ll be able to see a pattern in a couple of years. (I know session log not 100% accurate but it does give a general idea of a good or bad year.)
Anyway I look at the archive from 2005, checked the group stats for kiting windsurfing day and colored the months; Blue if it was under La Nina, Red if it was El Nino and Black if it was neutral.
(look at the picture attach).
I didnt really analyse it yet but with only a quick look it seems like El Nino is what we want during summer / fall but not Dec, Jan Feb.
Also the 3 biggest wind log year 2006-2009-2012 had El Nino in them.
As soon as I see a pattern for "Neutral" or "La Nina" good or bad for the month it contradict itself with another year same month.
Anyway here it is, maybe we ll be able to see a pattern in a couple of years. (I know session log not 100% accurate but it does give a general idea of a good or bad year.)
- Attachments
-
- 20082005
- jpg20082005.JPG (93.71 KiB) Viewed 3039 times
-
- 200122009
- jpg20122009.JPG (88.21 KiB) Viewed 3039 times
Here just monthly stats.
W/S Days - Kiters Day (doesnt matter which year) Hihgest # Riding days on top, lowest on bottom. Same color coded.
Other than having El Nino from June - November, pretty happy with the "neutral" right now (statisticaly)
W/S Days - Kiters Day (doesnt matter which year) Hihgest # Riding days on top, lowest on bottom. Same color coded.
Other than having El Nino from June - November, pretty happy with the "neutral" right now (statisticaly)
- Attachments
-
- MonthlyStats.JPG (48.19 KiB) Viewed 3015 times
-
JL
- Posts: 2610
- Joined: Thu May 22, 2003 8:57 am
- Location: Saanichton / Shirley (French Beach)
- Been thanked: 2 times
- Contact:
Nice work 
An obvious error with the data is many sessions are not logged. Historical wind data is available http://www.bigwavedave.ca/archive.php BUT how often are these 'night' winds 
An obvious error with the data is many sessions are not logged. Historical wind data is available http://www.bigwavedave.ca/archive.php BUT how often are these 'night' winds Thermals are good.
Aaaarrrggghhh!!!! Totally forgot about those, they also indicate the amount of days for each month from 2004-2005 above 15kts/20kts/25kts/30kts....
These would be nice stats to see on a spread sheet;
A Month --- Wind Days / Stats ---- Year --- % prob for La Nina/El Nino/Neutral
From top to bottom. Could indicated in braket how many "night wind" also (you have a line for 0600-1200-1800-0000 so would not be too difficult). 12 tables, one for each month...
Another nice Spread Sheet would be the average for each month for a couple of station on the island (Including stat for the low and top month, taking data from 2005-2012).
Do you know how long this is going to take? JL, I hate you
These would be nice stats to see on a spread sheet;
A Month --- Wind Days / Stats ---- Year --- % prob for La Nina/El Nino/Neutral
From top to bottom. Could indicated in braket how many "night wind" also (you have a line for 0600-1200-1800-0000 so would not be too difficult). 12 tables, one for each month...
Another nice Spread Sheet would be the average for each month for a couple of station on the island (Including stat for the low and top month, taking data from 2005-2012).
Do you know how long this is going to take? JL, I hate you
-
JL
- Posts: 2610
- Joined: Thu May 22, 2003 8:57 am
- Location: Saanichton / Shirley (French Beach)
- Been thanked: 2 times
- Contact:
Latest update. Neutral ... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ndex.shtml 
Thermals are good.
-
JL
- Posts: 2610
- Joined: Thu May 22, 2003 8:57 am
- Location: Saanichton / Shirley (French Beach)
- Been thanked: 2 times
- Contact:
Neutral this Summer predicted http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.htmlThermals are good.
-
JL
- Posts: 2610
- Joined: Thu May 22, 2003 8:57 am
- Location: Saanichton / Shirley (French Beach)
- Been thanked: 2 times
- Contact:
Cliff Mass Meteorologist/prof.: "So it looks like we are going to be in a neutral ENSO situation this coming winter, neither El Nino nor La Nina. The tropical sea surface temperatures will be close to normal.
What does this imply? El Nino years tend to be warm and less stormy. La Nina years are colder, wet, with more snow. Neutral years tend to be...normal. But there IS a tendency for the rare superstorms (like big atmospheric river floods) to occur in neutral years. This past year was a neutral year....and really wasn't too bad. La Nina late winter/springs are brutal...cold and wet last forever. And remember there are no guarantees here...just a weighting of the probabilities."
What does this imply? El Nino years tend to be warm and less stormy. La Nina years are colder, wet, with more snow. Neutral years tend to be...normal. But there IS a tendency for the rare superstorms (like big atmospheric river floods) to occur in neutral years. This past year was a neutral year....and really wasn't too bad. La Nina late winter/springs are brutal...cold and wet last forever. And remember there are no guarantees here...just a weighting of the probabilities."
Thermals are good.
-
JL
- Posts: 2610
- Joined: Thu May 22, 2003 8:57 am
- Location: Saanichton / Shirley (French Beach)
- Been thanked: 2 times
- Contact:
Spring-Neutral ... Summer undecided: http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... -cpc_plume
Thermals are good.
