Wind predictions using the MM5/MC2 models

~ pimp hand ~ · Post by **~ pimp hand ~** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 9:22 am

bigwavedave wrote:
I'm not sure about removing JR - again these are just estimates and I doubt we are giving away any secret information here. If there is a huge group that are outraged by it I guess I could change the name to "Secret Spot". The JR spot is more of a "west of Gordon's" spot and it definetly won't predict winds exactly at JR, of course. If I remove JR, then why not Columbia or Long Beach too, or maybe I shouldn't show Sheringham since that is close to JR. come to think of it, maybe I should blank out the satellite image over JR? Maybe others can comment, I do appreciate the suggestion and the above is just my point of view.

well, if you feel it's important to monitor a spot that gets windy a couple time a year, so be it ... as far as columbia or long beach goes, they actually get wind ... your sarcasim is taken with a grain o' salt ... do what ya gotta do, forget i even asked this question

out.

mortontoemike · Post by **mortontoemike** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 11:33 am

Thanks Dave.

For us poor landlubbers, envious of our island friends who have BWD looking after their interests, and who are wondering about Boundary Bay there is a 4km grid NMS, MM5, and MC2 model output generated by EOS at UBC at this site:

http://weather.eos.ubc.ca/wxfcst/

Unfortunately I don't have the software skills to extract the vital information but squinting seems to work OK in this case.

If you look at MM5 "Colored Surface Winds and Coinvergence" for tomorrow it looks like the model is predicting 16 - 22 kts ESE for Boundary Bay in the am.

The maps are pretty detailed so you can pick out your favourite spot (including sites around Victoria where it looks like 24-32 kts!! for tomorrow morning).

See you on the water.

monkeymanmike · Post by **monkeymanmike** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 5:54 pm

With all the excitement abound with the new forecast tool, I think it's important to remember Jimmy Lewis' "no end in sight" dedication to providing us with daily forecasts. Keep up the good work Jimmy!!

JL · Post by JL » Fri Mar 25, 2005 8:34 pm

Thanks

mortontoemike · Post by **mortontoemike** » Sat Mar 26, 2005 2:48 pm

The models were right on the money this morning. 4.5 to 5.5 sailing at Centennial Beach with the best wind at about 10 - 11 am.

Kite Kook · Post by **Kite Kook** » Wed Mar 30, 2005 11:36 am

Just a pointer for those who haven't noticed - the MM5 Model (and thus the new charts) has a tendancy to underpredict and, as Dave said, can sometimes miss the Westerlies. Case in point, it predicted 5 knots right now, and people are kiting in the 16-18 knots that is reported at Ogden.

Also, yesterday was NOT 20 knots at JR.

Other than that, it seems to me to work the vast majority of the time.

JL · Post by JL » Mon Apr 18, 2005 4:15 pm

I like the new 'Predictor' Dave. Now I can justify forecasting @ work....I'll just show them the #s for Tsa. & Pnt. Roberts...

bwd · Post by **bwd** » Tue Apr 19, 2005 10:17 am

jimmy lewis wrote:I like the new 'Predictor' Dave. Now I can justify forecasting @ work....I'll just show them the #s for Tsa. & Pnt. Roberts...

Thanks Jim! I hope it's useful, let me know how accurate you think it is. I'm still working out some of the bugs. Occassionally it will show 45kts for one hour, mostly for the 3 day outlook. This is because its using the 12km grid model for this and the map area is huge and it picks out the wrong points sometimes. Also, there was a bug in the directions (it gave South when it should have been North winds), but that's hopefully fixed now,
dave

Wind predictions using the MM5/MC2 models

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